Monday, August 22, 2011

Hold everything, Tripoli sitch unclear

Turns out Post #1 was a false start. Turns out the sources I'd been depending on for Libya news were oblivious to what Nato was up to. So now I'm making a belated reappraisal of the situation and terrain, and of Nato's options.

The surprise turn of events reminds me of the Inchon landing, when MacArthur was pushed off the southern tip of Korea and many thought that was it, the Reds had won. But unbeknownst, the general had a good one up his sleeve, proving that he hadn't spent all that time at the Point for nothing.

It appears to me that Nato and their Transitional sidekicks were happy to let everybody believe the "rebel" forces were in total disarray, disorganized, just a bunch of ragtag militias playing at war. Meanwhile, Nato was putting its strategy into effect: a large body of volunteers recruited around Benghazi was quietly assembled at a military base somewhere, possibly in Italy? to undergo six months of training, which is enough to make a bunch of slackers into skilled infantry squads. Assign experienced  mercenary NCO squad leaders, platoon and company First Sgts , experienced company officers, top off with Nato field grade officers at the battalion and regimental level.

Supplement them with regular Qatari Army units; add Nato Spec Ops units; add some combat-hardened "Jihadi"-type units drawn from other CIA/Mossad-assignments.

Assign No-fly Zone aircraft to clear a No-Sail zone in the waters near Tripoli by bombing any craft lacking Nato clearance to be there, including craft trying to ferry refugees to safer places. This puts Gaddafi & Co in the same position Grant was in at Shiloh, or Washington on Long Island: nobody was out beyond the perimeter keeping an eye open for enemy movements.

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